{
  "articleLedger": [
    {
      "call": "Spain, France, Argentina, Germany and England formed the 30 May title top five.",
      "date": "2026-05-30",
      "grade": "landed",
      "href": "/blog/world-cup-2026-before-kickoff",
      "kind": "Direct forecast",
      "logScore": null,
      "observedProbability": null,
      "result": "Four reached the semifinals; Germany went out in the Round of 32.",
      "slug": "world-cup-2026-before-kickoff",
      "title": "Before kickoff"
    },
    {
      "call": "Messi led at 16.3%; Mbapp\u00e9 was second at 12.5%.",
      "date": "2026-06-05",
      "grade": "missed",
      "href": "/blog/world-cup-2026-golden-boot",
      "kind": "Direct forecast",
      "logScore": 2.077,
      "observedProbability": 0.1253,
      "result": "Mbapp\u00e9 won the Golden Boot with 10 goals.",
      "slug": "world-cup-2026-golden-boot",
      "title": "Golden Boot preview"
    },
    {
      "call": "Messi had a 53.4% chance to pass Klose's career World Cup record.",
      "date": "2026-06-05",
      "grade": "landed",
      "href": "/blog/world-cup-2026-golden-boot",
      "kind": "Direct forecast",
      "logScore": 0.6268,
      "observedProbability": 0.5343,
      "result": "He passed it and finished on 21 career World Cup goals.",
      "slug": "world-cup-2026-golden-boot",
      "title": "Messi record call"
    },
    {
      "call": "Mexico were 58.2% to win; Czechia had a 20.3% qualification chance.",
      "date": "2026-06-19",
      "grade": "landed",
      "href": "/blog/world-cup-2026-czechia-vs-mexico-rotation",
      "kind": "Direct forecast",
      "logScore": 0.541,
      "observedProbability": 0.5822,
      "result": "Mexico won 3-0 and Czechia were eliminated.",
      "slug": "world-cup-2026-czechia-vs-mexico-rotation",
      "title": "Czechia vs Mexico"
    },
    {
      "call": "The USA were 76.5% to beat Bosnia after Belgium became their likeliest last-16 opponent.",
      "date": "2026-06-21",
      "grade": "landed",
      "href": "/blog/world-cup-2026-usa-route",
      "kind": "Direct forecast",
      "logScore": 0.2679,
      "observedProbability": 0.765,
      "result": "The USA beat Bosnia 2-0, then lost 4-1 to Belgium in the next round.",
      "slug": "world-cup-2026-usa-route",
      "title": "USA route"
    },
    {
      "call": "Messi had only a 4.4% chance to reach Fontaine's 13-goal tournament record.",
      "date": "2026-06-23",
      "grade": "landed",
      "href": "/blog/world-cup-2026-messi-record-chase",
      "kind": "Direct forecast",
      "logScore": 0.0447,
      "observedProbability": 0.9563,
      "result": "He finished the tournament with eight goals.",
      "slug": "world-cup-2026-messi-record-chase",
      "title": "Messi versus Fontaine"
    },
    {
      "call": "A draw with Austria lifted Algeria's qualification chance from 16.4% after a loss to 99.9%.",
      "date": "2026-06-27",
      "grade": "conditional",
      "href": "/blog/world-cup-2026-value-of-one-point",
      "kind": "Conditional scenario",
      "logScore": null,
      "observedProbability": null,
      "result": "Algeria drew 3-3 and advanced.",
      "slug": "world-cup-2026-value-of-one-point",
      "title": "Algeria's one-point route"
    },
    {
      "call": "Finishing second and drawing Ivory Coast was only marginally worse than the Sweden branch.",
      "date": "2026-06-27",
      "grade": "conditional",
      "href": "/blog/world-cup-2026-norway-france-rotation",
      "kind": "Conditional scenario",
      "logScore": null,
      "observedProbability": null,
      "result": "Norway beat Ivory Coast and Brazil before losing in the quarterfinals.",
      "slug": "world-cup-2026-norway-france-rotation",
      "title": "Norway's rotation route"
    },
    {
      "call": "France led on 14.6%, Argentina had 13.6%, and Spain had fallen to 9.6%.",
      "date": "2026-06-28",
      "grade": "missed",
      "href": "/blog/world-cup-2026-after-group-stage-predictions",
      "kind": "Direct forecast",
      "logScore": 2.3404,
      "observedProbability": 0.0963,
      "result": "All three reached the semifinals, but Spain won the title.",
      "slug": "world-cup-2026-after-group-stage-predictions",
      "title": "Post-group title board"
    },
    {
      "call": "Mexico were narrow 51.5% favourites to advance.",
      "date": "2026-06-29",
      "grade": "landed",
      "href": "/blog/world-cup-2026-mexico-ecuador-host-nation-trap",
      "kind": "Direct forecast",
      "logScore": 0.6636,
      "observedProbability": 0.515,
      "result": "Mexico won 2-0.",
      "slug": "world-cup-2026-mexico-ecuador-host-nation-trap",
      "title": "Mexico vs Ecuador"
    },
    {
      "call": "England had a 51.7% advancement edge at the Azteca.",
      "date": "2026-07-03",
      "grade": "landed",
      "href": "/blog/world-cup-2026-mexico-england-azteca-altitude",
      "kind": "Direct forecast",
      "logScore": 0.6591,
      "observedProbability": 0.5173,
      "result": "England won 3-2.",
      "slug": "world-cup-2026-mexico-england-azteca-altitude",
      "title": "Mexico vs England"
    },
    {
      "call": "England were 65.7% to advance from the quarterfinal.",
      "date": "2026-07-09",
      "grade": "landed",
      "href": "/blog/world-cup-2026-norway-ancelotti-possession",
      "kind": "Direct forecast",
      "logScore": 0.4195,
      "observedProbability": 0.6574,
      "result": "England won 2-1.",
      "slug": "world-cup-2026-norway-ancelotti-possession",
      "title": "Norway vs England"
    },
    {
      "call": "Messi led Mbapp\u00e9 61.1% to 36.4% with two matches left.",
      "date": "2026-07-16",
      "grade": "missed",
      "href": "/blog/world-cup-2026-golden-boot-endgame",
      "kind": "Direct forecast",
      "logScore": 1.0106,
      "observedProbability": 0.364,
      "result": "Mbapp\u00e9's third-place hat trick won the Golden Boot.",
      "slug": "world-cup-2026-golden-boot-endgame",
      "title": "Golden Boot endgame"
    },
    {
      "call": "Spain held a 50.56% trophy edge; their 38.86% 90-minute win was the top 1X2 outcome.",
      "date": "2026-07-17",
      "grade": "landed",
      "href": "/blog/world-cup-2026-spain-argentina-final",
      "kind": "Direct forecast",
      "logScore": 0.682,
      "observedProbability": 0.5056,
      "result": "The match was 0-0 after 90 minutes; Spain won 1-0 after extra time.",
      "slug": "world-cup-2026-spain-argentina-final",
      "title": "Spain vs Argentina final"
    },
    {
      "call": "Spain's 38.86% win was the top 90-minute outcome; the draw held 23.3%.",
      "date": "2026-07-17",
      "grade": "missed",
      "href": "/blog/world-cup-2026-spain-argentina-final",
      "kind": "Direct forecast",
      "logScore": 1.4567,
      "observedProbability": 0.233,
      "result": "The match was 0-0 after 90 minutes.",
      "slug": "world-cup-2026-spain-argentina-final",
      "title": "Final after 90 minutes"
    },
    {
      "call": "A descriptive review of the shots already taken.",
      "date": "2026-06-25",
      "grade": "unscored",
      "href": "/blog/world-cup-2026-goals-xg-shot-map",
      "kind": "Retrospective analysis",
      "logScore": null,
      "observedProbability": null,
      "result": "Not a prospective forecast.",
      "slug": "world-cup-2026-goals-xg-shot-map",
      "title": "Tournament shot map"
    },
    {
      "call": "A post-match account of two penalty-shootout eliminations.",
      "date": "2026-06-30",
      "grade": "unscored",
      "href": "/blog/world-cup-2026-germany-netherlands-1-1-trap",
      "kind": "Retrospective analysis",
      "logScore": null,
      "observedProbability": null,
      "result": "Not a prospective forecast.",
      "slug": "world-cup-2026-germany-netherlands-1-1-trap",
      "title": "The 1-1 trap"
    }
  ],
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        "averageConfidence": 0.4078,
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      },
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        "averageConfidence": 0.5062,
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        "realisedHitRate": 0.5161,
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      },
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        "averageConfidence": 0.6007,
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        "realisedHitRate": 0.8333,
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      },
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        "averageConfidence": 0.6951,
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        "averageConfidence": null,
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        "averageConfidence": 0.6007,
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      "hitSettled": true,
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      "hitSettled": true,
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      "homeTeam": "Germany",
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      "hitSettled": false,
      "homeGoals90": 1,
      "homeTeam": "Ivory Coast",
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    },
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      "awayTeam": "Tunisia",
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      "hit90": true,
      "hitSettled": true,
      "homeGoals90": 5,
      "homeTeam": "Sweden",
      "kickoffDate": "2026-06-15",
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    {
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