We simulated it 10,000 times
We played the whole thing out 10,000 times with our match model. Spain win it more than anyone, but the top of the board is a lot tighter than that makes it sound.
Pre-tournament snapshot · kickoff 11 June 2026
Who wins it
The race for the cup
Tap a team to see how far it gets. Its numbers stick to the bottom as you scroll.
24 more teams sit below 1%. You'll find them down in the groups.
The draw
Who got lucky with the draw
The contenders, ranked by how strong the rest of their quarter of the bracket is.
Easiest road
weakest teams to get past in their quarter
Hardest road
toughest teams to get past in their quarter
Group stage
12 groups, 48 teams
Each number is a team's chance of getting out of its group.
Group A
Group B
Group C
Group D
Group E
Group F
Group G
Group H
Group I
Group J
Group K
Group L
Path to the final
The bracket
Each slot shows who's most likely to be there. Tap one to see the field.
Round of 32
Round of 16
Quarterfinals
Semifinals
Final