Skip to content
UanalyseFootball intelligence platform
LIVE · --:-- UTC
FIFA World Cup 2026

We simulated it 10,000 times

We played the whole thing out 10,000 times with our match model. Argentina win it more than anyone, but the top of the board is a lot tighter than that makes it sound.

Pre-tournament snapshot · kickoff 21 June 2026

Read the before-kickoff breakdown →

Verify every forecast on GitHub →

Who wins it

The race for the cup

Tap a team to see how far it gets. Its numbers stick to the bottom as you scroll.

24 more teams sit below 1%. You'll find them down in the groups.
The draw

Who got lucky with the draw

Ranked by their quarter's strength. The bar and big number are the draw score (0–100 — soft on the left, brutal on the right); the small % underneath is the team's title odds.

Easiest road
softest quarters · score 100 = easiest draw, % = title odds
Hardest road
toughest quarters · score 100 = hardest draw, % = title odds
Group stage

12 groups, 48 teams

Each number is a team's chance of getting out of its group.

Group A
Group B
Group C
Group D
Group E
Group F
Group G
Group H
Group I
Group J
Group K
Group L
Path to the final

The bracket

Each slot shows the favourite to reach each side. The two rarely meet. Tap a team to trace its road to the final, or tap a slot for the full field.

Round of 32
Round of 16
Quarterfinals
Semifinals
Final
Every team, every round

The full table

Each team's chance of reaching each stage. Click a column to sort, click a row to trace that team's path in the bracket above.