Where the World Cup race stands
We played the whole thing out 10,000 times with our match model. France win it more than anyone, but the top of the board is a lot tighter than that makes it sound.
Latest snapshot · 14 July 2026
The race for the cup
Tap a team to see how far it gets. Its numbers stick to the bottom as you scroll.
Who got lucky with the draw
Ranked by their quarter's strength. The bar and big number are the draw score (0–100 — soft on the left, brutal on the right); the small % underneath is the team's title odds.
12 groups, 48 teams
Each number is a team's chance of getting out of its group.
The bracket
Each slot shows the favourite to reach each side. The two rarely meet. Tap a team to trace its road to the final, or tap a slot for the full field.
The full table
Each team's chance of reaching each stage. Click a column to sort, click a row to trace that team's path in the bracket above.
100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 57.3% | 32.2% | ||
100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 51.8% | 22.9% | ||
100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 48.2% | 22.7% | ||
100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 42.7% | 22.2% |