Where the World Cup race stands
We played the whole thing out 10,000 times with our match model. Spain win it more than anyone, but the top of the board is a lot tighter than that makes it sound.
Latest snapshot · 11 June 2026
Who wins it
The race for the cup
Tap a team to see how far it gets. Its numbers stick to the bottom as you scroll.
24 more teams sit below 1%. You'll find them down in the groups.
Group stage
12 groups, 48 teams
Each number is a team's chance of getting out of its group.
Group A
Group B
Group C
Group D
Group E
Group F
Group G
Group H
Group I
Group J
Group K
Group L
Path to the final
The bracket
Each slot shows the favourite to reach each side. The two rarely meet. Tap a team to trace its road to the final, or tap a slot for the full field.
Round of 32
Round of 16
Quarterfinals
Semifinals
Final