The race for the Golden Boot
Our model's read on who's most likely to finish the tournament as its top scorer. Lionel Messi leads the way, though it's a crowded field up top.
Model snapshot · 15 July 2026
Win Boot is the chance of finishing top scorer (tie-break: goals, then assists, then minutes); Top 3 is the chance of a top-three finish. Played is matches the team has played so far and Goals is goals scored so far; Expected games is how many it's projected to play in all. Avg goals is the average across the runs, and Strong run is the 90th-percentile goal tally (a top-end haul, what it usually takes to win the Boot, around 6 to 8).
| # | Player | Win Boot | Top 3 | Played | Goals | Exp. games | Avg goals | Strong run |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 61.1% | 99.9% | 7 | 8 | 8.0 | 8.5 | 9 | |
| 2 | 36.4% | 99.8% | 7 | 8 | 8.0 | 8.6 | 10 | |
| 3 | 1.2% | 24.9% | 7 | 6 | 8.0 | 6.4 | 7 | |
| 4 | 0.9% | 28.1% | 7 | 6 | 8.0 | 6.5 | 7 | |
| 5 | 0.4% | 7.1% | 7 | 5 | 8.0 | 5.5 | 6 | |
| 6 | 0.1% | 4.3% | 7 | 5 | 8.0 | 5.4 | 6 |
Our model's view of the top-scorer race, updated as the tournament plays out.