The race for the Golden Boot

Win Boot is the chance of finishing top scorer (tie-break: goals, then assists, then minutes); Top 3 is the chance of a top-three finish. Played is matches the team has played so far and Goals is goals scored so far; Expected games is how many it's projected to play in all. Avg goals is the average across the runs, and Strong run is the 90th-percentile goal tally (a top-end haul, what it usually takes to win the Boot, around 6 to 8).

#	Player	Win Boot	Top 3	Played	Goals	Exp. games	Avg goals	Strong run
1	Lionel MessiArgentina · Grp J	16.3%	34.6%	0	0	5.6	4.0	7
2	Kylian MbappéFrance · Grp I	12.5%	27.7%	0	0	5.4	4.0	7
3	Harry KaneEngland · Grp L	12.5%	28.0%	0	0	5.5	4.0	7
4	Cristiano RonaldoPortugal · Grp K	9.1%	22.2%	0	0	5.3	3.8	7
5	Ismael SaibariMorocco · Grp C	4.6%	14.5%	1	1	3.9	3.3	6
6	Julián QuiñonesMexico · Grp A	4.3%	13.6%	1	1	4.3	3.3	5
7	Luis SuárezColombia · Grp K	4.1%	12.4%	0	0	5.0	2.9	5
8	Erling HaalandNorway · Grp I	3.7%	10.5%	0	0	4.5	2.8	5
9	Vinícius JúniorBrazil · Grp C	3.2%	11.0%	1	1	4.4	3.0	5
10	Mikel OyarzabalSpain · Grp H	2.9%	9.6%	0	0	5.5	2.6	5
11	Ayase UedaJapan · Grp F	2.9%	9.3%	0	0	5.0	2.7	5
12	Lamine YamalSpain · Grp H	2.9%	9.7%	0	0	5.5	2.4	5
13	Yannick CarrascoBelgium · Grp G	2.6%	9.0%	0	0	5.4	2.5	5
14	Deniz UndavGermany · Grp E	1.7%	6.4%	0	0	5.5	2.2	4
15	RaphinhaBrazil · Grp C	1.7%	5.9%	1	0	4.4	2.2	4
16	Kevin De BruyneBelgium · Grp G	1.3%	4.7%	0	0	5.4	2.2	4
17	Breel EmboloSwitzerland · Grp B	1.2%	4.8%	1	1	3.6	2.7	5
18	Son Heung-MinSouth Korea · Grp A	1.1%	4.4%	1	0	3.9	1.9	4
19	Folarin BalogunUnited States · Grp D	0.8%	4.6%	1	2	3.9	3.0	4
20	Luis DíazColombia · Grp K	0.8%	3.1%	0	0	5.0	1.7	4
21	Petar MusaCroatia · Grp L	0.7%	3.1%	0	0	4.6	1.8	4
22	Mohamed SalahEgypt · Grp G	0.7%	2.7%	0	0	4.0	1.7	4
23	Donyell MalenNetherlands · Grp F	0.6%	2.8%	0	0	4.8	1.8	4
24	Keito NakamuraJapan · Grp F	0.5%	2.2%	0	0	5.0	1.6	3
25	Abbosbek FayzullaevUzbekistan · Grp K	0.4%	2.1%	0	0	3.8	1.6	3
26	Mousa Al-TamariJordan · Grp J	0.4%	1.7%	0	0	3.6	1.5	3
27	Alexander SørlothNorway · Grp I	0.4%	1.5%	0	0	4.5	1.6	3
28	Viktor GyökeresSweden · Grp F	0.4%	1.7%	0	0	3.8	1.8	4
29	John YeboahEcuador · Grp E	0.4%	1.9%	0	0	5.0	1.4	3
30	Eldor ShomurodovUzbekistan · Grp K	0.3%	2.0%	0	0	3.8	1.6	3