The race for the Golden Boot

Win Boot is the chance of finishing top scorer (tie-break: goals, then assists, then minutes); Top 3 is the chance of a top-three finish. Played is matches the team has played so far; Expected games is how many it's projected to play in all. Avg goals is the average across the runs, and Strong run is the 90th-percentile goal tally (a top-end haul, what it usually takes to win the Boot, around 6 to 8).

#PlayerWin BootTop 3PlayedExp. gamesAvg goalsStrong run

1Lionel MessiArgentina · Grp J61.3%97.8%43.89.211

2Kylian MbappéFrance · Grp I26.6%84.5%43.78.411

3Harry KaneEngland · Grp L5.1%36.1%43.16.69

4Erling HaalandNorway · Grp I2.5%24.4%42.66.38

5Mikel OyarzabalSpain · Grp H1.4%14.5%43.35.37

6Ismael SaibariMorocco · Grp C1.0%9.4%53.84.77

7Vinícius JúniorBrazil · Grp C0.9%11.5%43.45.27

8Cristiano RonaldoPortugal · Grp K0.5%6.5%42.94.56

9Julián QuiñonesMexico · Grp A0.4%5.7%42.94.36

10Ousmane DembéléFrance · Grp I0.2%6.8%43.74.96

11Breel EmboloSwitzerland · Grp B<0.1%0.3%42.62.84

12Folarin BalogunUnited States · Grp D<0.1%0.6%42.53.65

13Mohamed SalahEgypt · Grp G<0.1%0.1%42.41.93

14Jonathan DavidCanada · Grp B<0.1%0.1%52.03.54

15Luis DíazColombia · Grp K<0.1%0.1%43.31.93

16Lautaro MartínezArgentina · Grp J<0.1%<0.1%43.81.83

17Lamine YamalSpain · Grp H<0.1%0.2%43.32.03

18Samir CherguiAlgeria · Grp J0%0%41.00.00

19Aïssa MandiAlgeria · Grp J0%0%41.00.00

20Rafik BelghaliAlgeria · Grp J0%0%41.01.01

21Anis Hadj MoussaAlgeria · Grp J0%0%41.00.10

22Rayan Aït-NouriAlgeria · Grp J0%0%41.00.00

23Mohamed AmouraAlgeria · Grp J0%0%41.00.10

24Houssem AouarAlgeria · Grp J0%0%41.00.21

25Ibrahim MazaAlgeria · Grp J0%0%41.00.00

26Farès ChaïbiAlgeria · Grp J0%0%41.00.00

27Ramiz ZerroukiAlgeria · Grp J0%0%41.00.00

28Hicham BoudaouiAlgeria · Grp J0%0%41.00.00

29Amine GouiriAlgeria · Grp J0%0%41.01.12

30Saïd BenrahmaAlgeria · Grp J0%0%41.00.11