The race for the Golden Boot

Win Boot is the chance of finishing top scorer (tie-break: goals, then assists, then minutes); Top 3 is the chance of a top-three finish. Played is matches the team has played so far; Expected games is how many it's projected to play in all. Avg goals is the average across the runs, and Strong run is the 90th-percentile goal tally (a top-end haul, what it usually takes to win the Boot, around 6 to 8).

#PlayerWin BootTop 3PlayedExp. gamesAvg goalsStrong run

1Lionel MessiArgentina · Grp J16.4%33.9%05.64.07

2Kylian MbappéFrance · Grp I12.2%27.4%05.44.07

3Harry KaneEngland · Grp L12.0%27.3%05.54.07

4Cristiano RonaldoPortugal · Grp K9.0%21.3%05.33.87

5Ismael SaibariMorocco · Grp C4.7%14.5%13.93.36

6Julián QuiñonesMexico · Grp A4.4%13.5%14.23.35

7Luis SuárezColombia · Grp K4.2%12.2%05.12.95

8Erling HaalandNorway · Grp I3.5%10.7%04.52.85

9Vinícius JúniorBrazil · Grp C3.1%11.2%14.43.05

10Mikel OyarzabalSpain · Grp H3.0%9.7%05.52.65

11Ayase UedaJapan · Grp F3.0%9.5%05.02.75

12Yannick CarrascoBelgium · Grp G2.6%9.1%05.42.55

13Lamine YamalSpain · Grp H2.6%9.0%05.52.45

14Deniz UndavGermany · Grp E2.0%7.7%14.62.75

15RaphinhaBrazil · Grp C1.7%6.0%14.42.24

16Breel EmboloSwitzerland · Grp B1.3%5.0%13.62.75

17Kevin De BruyneBelgium · Grp G1.1%4.6%05.42.24

18Son Heung-MinSouth Korea · Grp A1.1%4.6%13.91.94

19Folarin BalogunUnited States · Grp D0.9%4.5%13.93.04

20Petar MusaCroatia · Grp L0.7%3.0%04.61.84

21Luis DíazColombia · Grp K0.7%3.0%05.11.74

22Donyell MalenNetherlands · Grp F0.6%2.8%04.81.84

23Kai HavertzGermany · Grp E0.5%3.0%14.62.84

24Mohamed SalahEgypt · Grp G0.5%2.7%04.01.74

25Abbosbek FayzullaevUzbekistan · Grp K0.5%2.1%03.81.63

26Keito NakamuraJapan · Grp F0.4%2.1%05.01.63

27Viktor GyökeresSweden · Grp F0.4%1.8%03.81.84

28Eldor ShomurodovUzbekistan · Grp K0.4%1.9%03.81.63

29John YeboahEcuador · Grp E0.4%1.8%05.01.43

30Mousa Al-TamariJordan · Grp J0.3%1.4%03.61.53